By Matthis Pasche, Carbon Advisor, Glander International Bunkering, Geneva
In April, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) took a decisive step toward global carbon pricing in shipping.
At the MEPC 83 meeting, members provisionally agreed on a framework that introduces two tiers of progressively tougher carbon intensity targets for ships above 5,000 GT. If adopted at an extraordinary MEPC session, the system will enter into force in March 2027. From 2028 onward, the global shipping industry will begin paying for its greenhouse gas emissions.
The framework sets penalties of $380/mtCO₂e for missing the higher base target and $100/mtCO₂e for emissions above the lower compliance target. Shipowners that exceed the direct compliance target can bank or trade their surplus units for up to two years, while companies that use energy below 19 gCO₂e/MJ will earn rewards funded by penalties from others.
The base threshold starts at 89.506 gCO₂e/MJ in 2028 and falls to 65.310 gCO₂e/MJ by 2035. The direct compliance target begins at 77.439 gCO₂e/MJ in 2028 and declines to 53.181 gCO₂e/MJ by 2035.
Although initial compliance costs will remain moderate, they will increase sharply over time. One tonne of VLSFO, with a GHG intensity of about 91 gCO₂e/MJ, will incur roughly $72/mt in IMO-related costs in 2028 and about $450/mt by 2035.
A New Era for the Bunker Industry
This framework will fundamentally reshape how the bunker industry operates. Every tonne of carbon will matter. Suppliers that deliver fuels with lower verified GHG intensity will give their customers a decisive cost advantage.
Companies must retool their sourcing strategies to reflect these changes. In the biofuel segment, for example, the choice of feedstocks can drive substantial differences in both GHG intensity and compliance costs.
They must also update their contracts to align with the new rules. Each agreement should specify the exact product mix the supplier commits to deliver, along with the associated GHG intensities and energy densities.
Emerging Market Dynamics
An active market will likely develop for trading surplus units between overcompliant and undercompliant ships. Similar to EUA procurement under the EU ETS or the pooling mechanisms in FuelEU Maritime, the bunker industry will play a central role in enabling and managing this market.
The Road Ahead
Transparency will define the next decade of marine fuel supply. As multiple regulatory regimes – EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, and the IMO framework – operate simultaneously, compliance costs may soon exceed the underlying price of conventional fuels.
Shipowners will turn to reliable partners who can secure diverse fuel supplies, verify sustainability credentials, and minimize regulatory exposure. Those who adapt quickly will lead the transition toward a lower-carbon future for global bunkering.
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